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Models > Prepayment Model
Prepayment Model
Model
Methodology:
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The Beyondbond Prepayment Model is a dynamic econometric model that applies economic theory to analyze mortgagor's prepayment behaviors and then fits them using historical US residential prepayment information. In order to develop the model, essential mortgage characteristics such as amortization term, age, contract rate, and principal factor, as well as crucial economic variables, such as housing turnover rate, prevailing market mortgage rate, and yield curve information over time were selected to determine the fixed rate prepayment factors.
For Hybrid Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARM), teaser, and interest only characteristics are factored into calibration. The applications of the model can be used not only for prepayment forecast but also for pricing, options adjusted spread evaluation, and scenario analysis for mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. The model specification employs cubic spline functions over a wide range of variables.
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Model Factors and Economic Variables:
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Refinance |
Yield Curve |
Issue Year Component |
Age |
Housing Turnover Rate |
Financing Expense Component |
Teaser |
Cash-out |
Issuer Agency |
Seasonality |
Equity |
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Burnout |
Credit |
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Tuning Parameters: Refinance, Age, Burnout, Teaser, Seasonality, Equity, and Credit
Empirical Fitting:
Agency fixed-rate: 30year, 15year, and 7year Balloon
Adjustable rate mortgage (ARM): 1-month, 6-month and 1-year LIBOR-indexed
Hybrid ARM: 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 LIBOR- and Treasury-indexed
Whole loan: High LTV, Sub-prime, and Second-lien |
Model
Projection
Model
Documentation: Modeling
Fixed Rate MBS Prepayments
Model
Inputs:
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Loan Type, Term to Maturity, Gross Coupon Rate, Principal Factor, Loan Age, and Settlement Month.
Additional Inputs for ARM: teaser factor, rate cap, reset cap, reset frequency
Optional inputs: Issue Year, Finance Expense, Loan Balance, LTV, DTI, and FICO Score |
Model
Flexibility:
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The prepayment model is used in conjunction with an in-house OAS or pricing model. Beyondbond has created an easy to use C function API for users who wish to use the prepayment model. Model delivery can be either subroutine in C library or Microsoft Excel. As well, the model is customized in a user-friendly way such that users can customize and fine-tune it via any web browser.
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Customer Flexibility:
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Customer support is provided as part of your software license agreement without cost or limitation. Training is also available for technical and system implementation. Unlike most models, Beyondbond offers a solution that can be completely integrated into your existing system's structure. We provide a library of deliverable analytics to be incorporated into your trading or valuation system. Company specific development requests are often directly incorporated into the system. Updates to system information
are provided to all clients on a monthly basis.
Highly
trained and responsive staff
Complete
user documentation
Help
desk available
Rapid
development response cycle
Monthly
data update
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Download
Prepayment Model Flyer
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